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The Gay Marriage (Polling) Conundrum
On the heels of a decision by California’s Supreme Court to uphold a ban on gay marriage in the Golden State comes polling data from USA Today/Gallup that contradicts the conventional wisdom that a majority of the American public is moving closer to acceptance of same-sex unions.
Asked whether “marriages between same-sex couples” should or shouldn’t be “recognized by the law as valid”, 40 percent of the sample said those unions should be valid while 57 percent said they should not.
Those number are essentially unchanged from a May 2008 Gallup survey but less optimistic for proponents of gay marriage than a May 2007 poll in which 46 percent said same sex marriages should be valid while 53 percent said they should not.
The USA Today/Gallup survey also asked whether “allowing two people of the same sex to marry” would change change society for the better, the worse or have no effect. Thirteen percent said it would make things better, 48 percent said it would make things worse and 36 percent said allowing gay people to marry would have no effect on society.
This poll data contrasts directly with data from several other national survey outlets that have shown a growing acceptance toward the idea of gay marriage.
In a late April Washington Post/ABC News poll, 49 percent said it should be legal for gay couples to marry — a thirteen point increase in that number since a June 2006 Post/ABC survey.
What gives? Opinions vary, although it’s worth noting that the wording of the question could well have some effect on the response. While USA Today/Gallup asks whether gay couples should have the “same rights as traditional marriages”, the Post/ABC survey simply asks whether it should be “legal or illegal for gay and lesbian/homosexual couples to get married”.
The first phrasing draws a direct contrast between gay marriage and “traditional” marriage while the second makes no mention of heterosexual marriage.
While the data out of Gallup does give us some pause when it comes to analyzing the political potency of the gay marriage debate, the majority of evidence suggests that gay marriage is still an issue that animates the bases of both parties — particularly social conservatives — but is not one that the middle of the country (ideologically) finds deeply objectionable.
That said, between the California ruling yesterday and the ongoing debate in New Hampshire about the legalization of gay marriage, this is an issue that will draw significant media attention over the coming months and will certainly be a topic of conversation in the 2012 Republican presidential primary fight. Article by Chril Cillizza for the Washington Post. Click the link below for more news and information at www.washingtonpost.com. Support your local newspaper and the Washington Post.
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